EDGE
Expected Value — the model's estimate of how much this position is worth
relative to its price. +5.4% means for every $100 risked, the model expects
$5.40 in return above breakeven over a large sample. Individual outcomes are noisy.
Edge is a long-run signal, not a guarantee.
E(WIN)
The model's estimated probability that the picked side wins. This is the
model's own estimate — independent of the market price. When E(WIN) is
meaningfully higher than the market's implied probability, that gap is the edge.
KELLY
The fractional Kelly criterion — a formula that converts edge and price into
an optimal stake size as a fraction of bankroll. ArcVest uses a fractional
(scaled) Kelly to manage variance. A higher fraction means more edge relative
to risk, not just more conviction.
ALLOCATION
Dollar stake = Kelly fraction × current bankroll × portfolio cap. This is the
model's recommended dollar risk for this position. It changes if the bankroll
or market price changes between runs.
OPEN POS.
A prior confirmed position exists on this same event from a previous run.
This flag exists to prevent unintentional double exposure. Review your
confirmed positions before placing additional risk on flagged events.
PRICE
Best available decimal price at the time of the morning seal run.
Prices shift throughout the day. The sealed price is the entry used
for model accounting. Actual execution price may differ.
ArcVest is for informational purposes only. Not betting advice. Positions are sealed at the 6am model run and reflect prices at that time. Line movement after seal is not reflected in this card. All results tracked publicly from Reset 4 baseline (April 23, 2026). Read the full methodology →